Nicholas J. Wheeler and Tim Dunne
door to the possibility of greater autonomy for the Timorese. Habibie’s
25
announcement was made on 9 June 1998 in an interview with the BBC.
Whatever the balance between endogenous and exogenous factors in
creating a new context for the Timor question, the effect was to disturb the
settled assumptions that had previously shaped Indonesian–Australian bilateral
relations. From an Australian perspective, the national interest was still defined
by the principle of recognizing Indonesian sovereignty over East Timor, but
within that constraint, the Howard government began to lobby more on behalf
of the rights of the East Timorese. According to the book published by the
Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) in 2001 on the
government’s East Timor policy in the period 1998–2000, two key consider-
ations shaped policy at this time. First, there was concern that despite Habibie’s
announcement in June, there had been no progress in the tripartite talks. The
situation on the ground in East Timor was increasingly volatile, and ‘Australia
was concerned that if growing defiance towards Indonesian rule was met by
renewed TNI repression, the situation in East Timor could deteriorate beyond
control’. Second, there was growing public support in Australia, after Suharto’s
26
fall, for self-determination for the Timorese. These considerations led Prime
Minister Howard to try to influence the tripartite talks in a more positive direction.
In December 1998 he wrote to President Habibie encouraging him to con-
sider a period of autonomy for East Timor followed by an eventual act of self-
determination, the outcome of which Australia would not prejudge. This may
have annoyed Habibie, given that Australia had hitherto been a reliable defender
27
of Indonesia’s sovereignty over East Timor. Yet a month later (27 January
1999) Indonesia went considerably further than at any point since the dialogue
began. Habibie promised that if the East Timorese rejected a proposal for
autonomy within Indonesia, he would ask the People’s Consultative Assembly
28
to grant them independence. On 5 May an agreement was signed by the UN,
Portugal and Indonesia to allow a UN-supervised ballot. A key and controver-
sial element in the agreement was that the TNI had sole responsibility for law
and order. The consequences of this decision were disastrous. The UN Mission
in East Timor (UNAMET), mandated to organize the election, faced a very
hostile environment as pro-integrationist militias sought to intimidate the
mission and destabilize the process. As a result the date for the ballot was pushed
25
The key part of Habibie’s statement was: ‘I am ready to consider as the President, to give East Timor a
special status . . . under one condition that East Timor is recognized as an integrated part of the Republic
of Indonesia’ (Reuters, 10 June 1998).
East Timor in transition, pp. 29–30.
Richard Leaver, ‘The meaning, origins and implications of “the Howard doctrine”’, Pacific Review 14: 1,
26
27
2001, pp. 15–34 at p. 28. After East Timor went up in flames, former Primer Minister Keating blamed
Howard for the disaster. Had he not sent the letter, Keating rather implausibly suggested, ‘The East
Timor disaster would not have started to unfold’. See Mike Steketee, ‘Keating’s last stand’, The Weekend
Australian, 9–10 Oct. 1999. Interestingly, Keating’s foreign minister took a different line, believing that
Howard was right to send the letter. See Evans, ‘Steps beyond ending the bloodshed’.
28
Maley claims that Habibie’s change of policy was not discussed with foreign minister Ali Alatas: William
Maley, ‘Australia and the East Timor crisis: some critical comments’, Australian Journal of International
Affairs 54: 2, 2000, pp. 151–61 at p. 156.
812