REPORTS
12. M. Ochiai, Synlett 2009, 159 (2009).
13. Ionization potentials of halobenzenes increase in
the order PhI (8.69 eV) < PhBr (8.98 eV) < PhCl
(9.06 eV) (14).
14. D. R. Lide, Ed., CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics
(CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 1992).
15. M. Ochiai et al., J. Am. Chem. Soc. 129, 12938
(2007).
16. M. Ochiai, K. Miyamoto, S. Hayashi, W. Nakanishi,
Chem. Commun. 46, 511 (2010).
22. D. D. DesMarteau, A. Donadelli, V. Montanari,
V. A. Petrov, G. Resnati, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 115, 4897 (1993).
23. B. P. Gómez-Emeterio, J. Urbano, M. M. Diaz-Requejo,
P. J. Perez, Organometallics 27, 4126 (2008).
24. K. Chen, A. Eschenmoser, P. S. Baran, Angew. Chem. Int.
Ed. 48, 9705 (2009).
31. M. Ochiai, N. Tada, T. Okada, A. Sota, K. Miyamoto,
J. Am. Chem. Soc. 130, 2118 (2008).
32. T. Okuyama, T. Takino, T. Sueda, M. Ochiai, J. Am.
Chem. Soc. 117, 3360 (1995).
33. P. J. Stang, Z. Rappoport, M. Hanack, L. R. Subramanian,
Vinyl Cations (Academic Press, New York, 1979).
Acknowledgments: This work was supported by a
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (Japan Society
for the Promotion of Science). We thank Central Glass
Co., Japan, for a generous gift of BrF3.
25. M. N. Glukhovtsev, C. Canepa, R. D. Bach, J. Am.
Chem. Soc. 120, 10528 (1998).
26. E. Nakamura, N. Yoshikai, M. Yamanaka, J. Am.
Chem. Soc. 124, 7181 (2002).
17. Teflon PFA is a perfluoroalkoxy copolymer resin, available
27. X. Lin, C. Zhao, C.-M. Che, Z. Ke, D. L. Phillips,
Supporting Online Material
Materials and Methods
SOM Text
Figs. S1 to S12
Tables S1 and S2
from DuPont, Wilmington, Delaware.
18. Materials and methods are available as supporting
material on Science Online.
19. D. S. Breslow, M. F. Sloan, N. R. Newburg, W. B. Renfrow,
J. Am. Chem. Soc. 91, 2273 (1969).
20. C. Reichardt, Solvents and Solvent Effects in Organic
Chemistry (Wiley-VCH, Weinheim, Germany, 2003).
21. R. Mello, M. Fiorentino, C. Fusco, R. Curci, J. Am. Chem.
Soc. 111, 6749 (1989).
Chem. Asian J. 2, 1101 (2007).
28. Small deuterium KIEs of 1.05 and 1.07 for the hydride
abstraction reaction of the bridgehead adamantane C–H
bond with tert-butyl cation and hydroperoxonium ion
were reported (3).
29. S.-M. Au, J.-S. Huang, W.-Y. Yu, W.-H. Fung, C.-M. Che,
J. Am. Chem. Soc. 121, 9120 (1999).
References
30. Y. M. Badiei et al., Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 47, 9961
(2008).
14 December 2010; accepted 4 March 2011
10.1126/science.1201686
period. Because the seasonal cycle typically is
large, care must be exercised in determining trend
information from the data set [supporting online
material (SOM)].
We aim here to determine whether there is a
statistically significant trend [where trend is de-
fined as a linear increase or decrease in the mean
(23, 24)] within the time series of monthly mean,
90th-, and 99th-percentile values of wind speed
and wave height for 2° × 2° regions covering the
globe. In the analysis, we take particular care to
ensure that the trend can be separated from the
seasonal component (SOM).
Global Trends in Wind Speed
and Wave Height
I. R. Young,* S. Zieger, A. V. Babanin
Studies of climate change typically consider measurements or predictions of temperature over
extended periods of time. Climate, however, is much more than temperature. Over the oceans,
changes in wind speed and the surface gravity waves generated by such winds play an
important role. We used a 23-year database of calibrated and validated satellite altimeter
measurements to investigate global changes in oceanic wind speed and wave height over this
period. We find a general global trend of increasing values of wind speed and, to a lesser
degree, wave height, over this period. The rate of increase is greater for extreme events as
compared to the mean condition.
The trend was quantified as a linear function
over the duration of the time series. The analysis
revealed that 90th- and 99th-percentile wind speed
data from the GEOSAT altimeter were of ques-
ceanic wind speed and wave height help speed and wave height, using a variety of instru- tionable quality (SOM). Therefore, these data were
to control the flux of energy from the ments, including altimeters, scatterometers, and excluded from the analysis. As a result, the wave
atmosphere to the ocean (1) and upper synthetic aperture radar, providing global cover- height analysis considers the period 1985–2008,
O
ocean mixing (2). Thus, they substantially influ- age of wind and/or waves. Of these instruments, whereas wind speed is analyzed for the shorter
ence the mechanisms of air-sea interaction (3). the radar altimeter provides by far the longest- period 1991–2008. The trend was expressed for
Previous attempts to investigate trends in oceanic duration record. Since the launch of GEOSAT in each 2° × 2° region as the annual percentage in-
wind speed and wave height have used ship ob- 1985, there exists an almost continuous (there crease or decrease relative to the mean condi-
servations (4–8), point measurements (9), numer- was a break in 1990–1991) record of measures tion and in absolute terms. The monthly mean,
ical modeling (10–15), or satellite observations from a total of seven different altimeter missions. 90th-, and 99th-percentile trend values for both
(16). Almost all of these studies are regional Numerous calibrations of these altimeters have wind speed and wave height are shown in Figs.
rather than global. Although there is a range of shown that the instruments can be used to mea- 1 to 3 (percentage increase or decrease) and figs.
pffiffiffi
results, many studies show an increasing trend in sure significant wave height, Hs ¼ 4 E, where S7 to S9 (SOM) (absolute increase or decrease),
significant wave height, particularly in the North E is the total energy of the wave field, with a root respectively.
Atlantic and North Pacific, often correlated with mean square (rms) error of less than 0.2 m (17),
There is a clear global increase in wind
interannual variations such as the North Atlantic and wind speed, U10, with a rms error of less than speed for all three statistics. The mean and 90th-
Oscillation. Careful ship observations (4–6) also 1.5 m/s (17–21). Data from altimeter missions percentile wind speed trends are relatively sim-
show waves locally generated by the wind (hereafter have been used to investigate mean ocean wind ilar, with the magnitude of the increase being
referred to as wind-sea) and swell behaving quite and wave climatology (21, 22) on a global scale. larger for the 99th percentile. Such a result in-
differently and that there exist quite different trends Recently, Zieger et al. (20) carried out systematic dicates that the intensity of extreme events is in-
in wind speed and wave height. The present analysis calibrations and cross-platform validations of all creasing at a faster rate than that of the mean
uses recently developed satellite altimeter data sets altimeter measurements over the full 23 years for conditions. At the mean and 90th percentile, wind
to carefully investigate such trends on a global scale. which data are available. This study provided a speeds over the majority of the world’s oceans
Satellite-based systems provide an alternative consistent data set over this extended period. Be- have increased by at least 0.25 to 0.5% per year
to visual or in situ measurements of oceanic wind cause the data set spans multiple satellite plat- (a 5 to 10% net increase over the past 20 years).
forms, consistent calibration and validation are The trend is stronger in the Southern Hemisphere
critical when investigating long-term trends. In than in the Northern Hemisphere. The only sig-
Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria,
the present study, we used this data set to inves- nificant exception to this positive trend is the cen-
tigate whether there have been systematic changes tral north Pacific, where there are smaller localized
in the ocean wind and wave climate over this increases in wind speed of approximately 0.25%
Australia.
*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
451