1
558
Read et al.
JID 2000;182 (November)
chain reaction (PCR) in blood or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples,
in addition to strain characterization in culture-proven cases and
meningococcal serology. From January 1997 to June 1998, we ar-
chived consecutively received whole-blood samples from white pa-
tients 4–70 years of age who had had meningococcal disease. Sam-
ples were included in the study if meningococcal disease was verified
by culture or PCR detection of N. meningitidis in blood or CSF.
Once clinical information had been collated, samples were coded
so that individuals could no longer be identified.
survived were B (91 patients [39%]), C (104 patients [44%]),
W135 (2 patients [1%]), and ungrouped (40 patients [17%]).
Genotype distributions. The distribution of gene polymor-
phisms among subjects with meningococcal disease are shown
in table 1. Allelic distributions for IL1A (ϩ4845), IL1B (ϩ3954),
and TNFA (Ϫ308) were similar. However, IL1B (Ϫ511) geno-
types were significantly different between the groups (P ! .001).
Individuals homozygous (1/1 or 2/2) at IL1B (Ϫ511) were more
likely to die from meningococcal disease, and heterozygotes were
more likely to survive. The percentage of deaths in genotype
groups 1/1, 1/2, and 2/2 were 18.0%, 6.1%, and 32.3%, respec-
tively, and the ORs for death of individuals homozygous for
allele 1 or 2 (1/1 and 2/2), compared with the ORs for hetero-
zygous individuals, were 3.39 (95% confidence interval [CI],
Laboratory methods. DNA was extracted by standard methods.
We probed for 5 SNPs: IL1A (ϩ4845), IL1B (ϩ3954), IL1B (Ϫ511),
0
IL1RN (ϩ2018), and TNFA (Ϫ308) using a validated 5 nuclease
assay (TaqMan allelic discrimination test; Perkin Elmer Biosystems,
Foster City, CA) [7]. Probes, primer sequences, and cyclingconditions
are available in an Appendix published only in the electronic edition
of the Journal (http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JID/). We indicate
the frequent allele of each gene variant as “1” and the rarer allele
as “2,” as is the standard nomenclature. Homozygosity is indicated
as “1/1” or “2/2,” and heterozygosity is indicated as “1/2.” Carriage
of one particular allele is indicated, for example, as “2ϩ” for the
rarer allele, meaning individuals who are either 2/2 or 1/2.
1.39–8.29) and 7.35 (95% CI, 2.51–21.48), respectively.
We also observed an increased, but not significant, risk of
death for individuals carrying the rare allele (2ϩ) of IL1RN
ϩ2018): Mortality rates were 11.3% and 17.3% for 1/1 and
ϩ, respectively. Composite genotype analysis was therefore
(
2
done over IL1B (Ϫ511) and IL1RN (ϩ2018). Table 2 illustrates
Statistical analysis. Heterozygous and homozygous odds ratios
2
(ORs) for survival and death were calculated for each locus as
the 2 ϫ 6 contingency table that was generated. A x analysis
estimates of the genotypic relative risks [9]. Subsequently, data were
either analyzed by x analysis in a 2 ϫ 3 genotype table or a
(5 df) illustrated significant evidence for an association between
the composite genotype over these loci and risk of death or
survival (P ! .001). For each genotype combination across these
two loci, the mortality rate was higher when the individual was
carrying the rare allele at IL1RN (ϩ2018) (table 2). The lowest
mortality rate (2.4%) was for the composite genotype 1/2 at
IL1B (Ϫ511) and 1/1 at IL1RN (ϩ2018), and the highest mor-
tality rate (42.1%) was for the composite 2/2 and 2ϩ. The OR
for mortality, when compared between these two genotype com-
binations only, was extremely strong (OR, 29.09 [95% CI,
3.28–258.21]; P ! .001).
2
2
ϫ 2 table for carriage of a specific allele. Composite genotype
analyses over multiple loci were also done where appropriate.
Monte Carlo techniques were used to calculate empirical P values
[
10] (Monte Carlo composite genotype method [MCCG]) when the
2
standard x test on the relevant contingency table was invalid be-
cause of small expected values. A study-wide significance level of
.01 was considered a reasonable threshold and is probably con-
servative, since we have previously shown a high degree of linkage
disequilibrium in this region [11] and, therefore, individual tests
are not strictly independent.
This increased risk of mortality was also observed when the
“
protective” composite (1/2 and 1/1) was compared against all
other groups of genotype combinations together (OR, 7.78
95% CI, 1.05–59.05]; MCCG P p .0183); only 1 (2.4%) of 41
patients with this composite genotype had died versus 38
16.8%) of 226 who did not have this genotype. We found no
Results
[
Patients and microbiologic data. During the study period,
(
1
120 microbiologically proven cases of meningococcal disease
in England and Wales were verified, among patients 4–70 years
of age, by the MRU. Over the same period, whole-blood sam-
ples for PCR detection of N. meningitidis were received from
Table 1. Genotype distributions for the 5 markers tested in the
tumor necrosis factor (TNF) gene TNFA and in the interleukin (IL)–1
genes IL1A, IL1B, and IL1RN.
5
075 patients in this age group with suspected meningococcal
No. (%) of patients genotyped, by marker
infection. Of these, we identified 276 with culture- or PCR-
proven meningococcal disease. Of the DNA samples, 39 were
from patients who had died, and 237 were from patients who
had survived. The mean age of patients who had died
Patient group,
genotype
TNFA
(Ϫ308)
IL1A
(ϩ4845)
IL1B
(ϩ3954)
IL1B
(Ϫ511)
IL1RN
(ϩ2018)
Deceased (n p 39)
1
1
2/2
/1
/2
27 (71)
11 (29)
0
17 (45)
18 (47)
3 (9)
21 (55)
15 (39)
2 (5)
22 (56)
7 (18)
10 (26)
16 (41)
18 (46)
5 (13)
(
26.4 ע
19.7 years) was not significantly greater than that for
those who had survived (20.6 ע
14.9 years; P p .2, Mann-
Whitney U test). The median age in both cases was 17 years.
The serogroups of N. meningitidis detected by culture or PCR
of samples from patients who had died were B (11 patients
Survivors (n p 237)
1
1
2/2
/1
/2
135 (65)
67 (32)
5 (3)
112 (57)
87 (39)
22 (10)
.458
123 (57)
78 (36)
14 (7)
.050
100 (44)
108 (47)
21 (9)
15.632
.0005
125 (53)
86 (37)
24 (10)
1.982
2
x
.488
.485
[
28%]), C (20 patients [51%]), W135 (1 patient [3%]), and un-
P
.499
.823
.159
grouped (7 patients [18%]). The serogroups from those who had