Klemm and Mason
This paper covers exploration of the data, data min-
ing, and statistical modeling. Data exploration captures
properties of the data that may affect the selection of vari-
ables or analysis models. Missingness and outlier analy-
ses were performed to understand the robustness of the
data set. Principal component and factor analyses were
applied to understand the variance properties of the mul-
titude of AQIs, some of which are statistically related quan-
tities, such as 24-hr average and maximum daily 1-hr
average. Since statistical modeling relies on variance prop-
erties of the independent and dependent variables, data
mining provides useful information for the variable se-
lection process. This paper covers findings for the period
from August 1, 1998, to July 31, 1999.
Our interim model used the generalized additive
model (GAM) to estimate the relationship between AQIs
and daily mortality, and it had the Poisson regression form.
This model approach has been used in recent air quality
and health outcome studies. One attractive feature of the
model is the simplicity of the calculation of estimated
proportional changes in mortality from pollutants. It also
provides a foundation for comparison of ARIES results with
previous, similar studies.
averages; daily cumulative; and 5-min, 1-, 3-, 8-, and
24-hr maxima and minima. Each variable has specific units
associated with the measurements. The complete list of
measurements and the ARIES data dictionary are avail-
able from EPRI.3
By consensus, the ARIES epidemiology team of staff
from EPRI, Klemm Analysis Group, and Emory University
prioritized 15 of the original 58 pollutant measures. This
consensus was based on explicit or implicit linkage to pre-
vious mortality and morbidity studies and time limits to
complete the interim analysis. The priority list represents
many of the pollutants previously modeled. These vari-
ables included daily average PM2.5 (Federal Reference
Method [FRM]), PM10, coarse particulate mass, organic car-
bon, elemental carbon, oxygenated hydrocarbons, acid,
NO3, SO4, ultrafine particles of 10–100-nm diameter area
and count, and daily maximum 1-hr CO, O3,NO2, and SO2.
Our interim analysis used the data from the ARIES
epidemiological database without consideration of outli-
ers (except as noted for imputation of PM2.5 [FRM] described
in the Methods section). Future analysis will address other,
if not all, data in the ARIES epidemiological database.
This paper focuses on representative examples of the
dozens of AQI variables and model combinations that the
ARIES epidemiology team of the EPRI, Klemm Analysis
Group, and Emory University established a priori.
Mortality Data
In many mortality studies, annual mortality data are ob-
tained from the National Center for Health Statistics, U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services. These data
are available 18 months–2 years after the time of death.
Klemm arranged to acquire copies of redacted (identities
removed) death certificates for the ARIES area (Fulton and
DeKalb counties, GA) from the County Offices of Vital
Records. These mortality records were entered into elec-
tronic files, reviewed, unduplicated, and coded for Inter-
national Classification of Disease (ICD)-9 cause of death.
This contemporaneous mortality database provided the
basis for our mortality analysis.
METHODS
All ARIES AQI and meteorology data are collected at a
single site in northwestern Atlanta, GA, which houses all
the measurement instruments. The site has been designed
to account for the local geography and avoid interference
between instruments, and it offers on-site diagnostic, re-
pair, and data-processing capabilities.
Meteorological Data
Mortality data were compiled from redacted copies
of the official Georgia death certificates. The Georgia cer-
tificate of death contains 32 fields of information, and
many of these fields, such as cause of death, contain mul-
tiple subfields. The redacted certificate contains counties
of death and residence; place, time and date of death;
age; sex; and causes of death. The records were prescreened
by the county departments of vital records before being
sent, in an effort to eliminate accidental causes of death
(ICD-9 code 800 or higher); those accidental causes not
identified by the county staff were eliminated at a later
step in the process. The data from the redacted copies of
each death certificate were entered into an electronic file.
Next, we sorted the mortality file on all data fields to
identify possible duplicate entries. Unique entries were
set aside and the potential duplicates reviewed manually.
Mortality entries with identical information were removed
The ARIES data set includes 10 meteorological variables
and daily 24-hr maximum and minimum temperatures.
Relative humidity is reported as a 24-hr average, daily
maximum 1-hr average, and daily minimum 1-hr aver-
age. Dew-point temperature, barometric pressure, and
solar flux are analyzed only as 24-hr averages. Precipita-
tion appears as a daily total. Complete definitions of the
meteorological data are available through EPRI.3
Air Quality Measurements
Sixty air quality measurement variables are stored in the
ARIES database, including fine, coarse, and PM10; ultrafine
particle counts, numbers, and size distributions; and car-
bons, hydrocarbons, gaseous pollutants, mold, pollen, and
other epidemiologically interesting species. These quan-
tities include multiple PM2.5 measurement methods; daily
1434 Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association
Volume 50 August 2000