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D.D. Sung et al. / Chemical Physics Letters 392 (2004) 378–382
of estimated coefficients obtained by linear and nonlin-
ear regression [17–21].
usually the regression improves with an increase in the
adjustable variables. The parameter a01 and a20 are similar
in the two methods of fits, but a1; a2 and a3 in the three-
term form differ considerably between the two methods
of fits.
This discrepancy is caused mainly by insufficient
number of experimental data sets and/or partially by
inaccuracy of the standard deviation of the experimental
value. We conclude here that (i) a better fit and hence
the more reliable parameters are obtained by weighting
procedure, and (ii) the three term form, (2), represents
the best temperature dependence of the rates.
In Table 2, we compared the CIs calculated based on
the covariance matrix (conventional method [16]) with
those on the MC simulation [17–21]. For unweighted
parameters, the CIs by the MC method are 2–3 times
smaller than those by the conventional method, which is
in good agreement with the results in the literature
[12,18]. For the weighted fit parameters, the CI values by
the MC method becomes with 7–10 times smaller than
those by the conventional method.
In this work, MC method was used to determine the
CIs of derived parameters. A new data set (ki0; Ti) is
generated from the original one (ki; Ti) by using Eq. (9),
where ei is a normally distributed assembly of random
number (mean ¼ 0, variance ¼ 1) which can be generated
using Box–Muller method [22] or rejection technique
[8,16].
ki0 ¼ ki þ riei:
ð9Þ
Regression analysis were then performed over each
synthetic data set to obtain optimized parameters, ai, ai0
and a0i0. The CIs were determined using t and ri values.
The MC simulation was repeated until essentially con-
stant estimates of the parameters (CIs ) are obtained. In
the present work the MC simulations were repeated 400
times. We found that the variation of parameters ai with
respect to the number of iteration oscillates widely until
ꢁ400 iterations are reached.
The temperature dependence of activation enthalpy,
DHz, and entropy, DSz, calculated by substitution of
Eqs. (4) into Eqs. (2) are given in Tables 3 and 4,
respectively.
3. Results and discussion
The F -test at the 95% confidence level by comparing
the calculated values with the tabulated F -values indi-
cates that the number of significant terms in the best fit
equation is not the same in the unweighted (two-terms,
since Fcal ¼ 0:038 is smaller than Ftab ¼ 4:75) and
weighted (three-terms, since Fcal ¼ 18:16 is greater than
Ftab ¼ 4:75) regression. It is noteworthy that the fourth
term added in the four-term equation (a010 ¼
ꢀ2:960 ꢄ 103, a020 ¼ 5:115 ꢄ 104, a030 ¼ 5:479 ꢄ 102 and
a4 ¼ ꢀ1:144 in Eq. (6) by weighted method) aggravates
the fit since the calculated F -value ()8.37) is negative
(Ftab ¼ 4:84). The F -test results are supported by the rfit
values. The rfit values with unweighted method are
0.0655 and 0.0681 for the two- and three-term form,
respectively, whereas those with weighted method are
0.0297, 0.0192 and 0.0415, respectively, for the two-,
three-, and four-term forms. The best fit with the
smallest rfit value is predicted for the three-term equa-
tion. The fit is the worst with the four-term expression,
Eq. (6). This is rather an unexpected outcome, since
Both DHz and DSz values are seen to decrease with
the rise in temperature by ꢁ1 kJ molꢀ1 per degree and 3.
5 kJ Kꢀ1 molꢀ1 per degree, respectively. The confidence
intervals for DHz and DSz values by the MC method
become much smaller, by 5–10 times, than those by the
conventional method. Interestingly, the CIs by both
methods get wider, i,e., the errors in the estimated DHz
and DSz values increase, as the temperature rises or
drops from 20.0 °C, at which the CI values exhibit a
minimum. This could be related to the stability of the
reaction temperature since obviously the temperature
control will be the most precise around the room tem-
perature. In general the errors in the estimated values of
DHz and DSz are seen to be small around the room
temperature range of 15–26 °C. There is notable change
in the sign of DSz at 20 °C from positive to negative.
Relatively small positive or negative DSz values have
been considered as a characteristic of the SN1 solvolysis
[3], particularly in aqueous solution, associated with the
Table 2
Comparison of CIs estimated by the conventional (Conv.) and MC methods
Unweighted
Weighted
Parameter
CI
Parameter
CI
Conv.
MC
Conv.
MC
a10
a20
a1
a2
a3
30.87
)1.147 ꢄ 104
0.43
0.013 ꢄ 104
0.183
0.005 ꢄ 104
30.32
0.29
0.027
)1.130 ꢄ 104
8.441 ꢄ 102
)4.693 ꢄ 104
)1.218 ꢄ 102
0.009 ꢄ 104
1.861 ꢄ 102
0.815 ꢄ 104
0.279 ꢄ 102
0.0008 ꢄ 104
0.252 ꢄ 102
0.110 ꢄ 104
0.037 ꢄ 102
63.14
)1.288 ꢄ 104
)4.831
164.1
0.718 ꢄ 104
24.57
64.5
0.281 ꢄ 104
9.673